Pakistan’s Military Success and China’s Strategic Display: Insights from the USCC May 7-10 Clash Report

Introduction

In its 2025 Annual Report to Congress, the U.S.–China Economic & Security Review Commission (USCC) reviewed the four-day armed engagement between India and Pakistan from May 7 to May 10, 2025. According to the report, this clash represented one of the most intense exchanges between the two nuclear-armed neighbours in decades, and it provided a window into the evolving roles of third-party actors and weapon-system deployments in South Asia. USCC+2USCC+2

The report’s key findings highlight two interlinked dynamics: (1) Pakistan achieving a degree of military success over India in this clash, and (2) China leveraging the episode to test and showcase its own advanced weapon systems. USCC+2Deccan Herald+2

What the Report Says: Pakistan’s Success

The USCC report states clearly that:

“Pakistan’s military success over India in its four-day clash showcased Chinese weaponry.” USCC+1

This indicates that, according to the Commission’s assessment, Pakistan held a favourable operational outcome in the May 7-10 engagement. The wording “military success over India” is used in the report to describe Pakistan’s role in the clash. TRT World+1

While the report does not provide a detailed breakdown of each side’s losses in fully unambiguous terms, it does reference claims and qualifications regarding aircraft losses.

China’s Role and Weapon-System Deployment

The report further describes China’s involvement in the clash as follows:

• “China’s role in the May 7–10, 2025, clash between Pakistan’s and India’s militaries drew global attention as Pakistan’s military relied upon Chinese weaponry and reportedly leveraged Chinese intelligence.” USCC+1

• The USCC notes that during the conflict both states “attacked targets farther into one another’s territories than at any time in 50 years.” TRT World+1

• As Pakistan’s largest defence supplier, China accounted for approximately 82% of Pakistan’s arms imports from 2019-2023, according to the report. The Current+1

• The clash served as a testing ground for Chinese-made systems such as the HQ-9 air-defence system, PL-15 air-to-air missiles, and the J-10 fighter aircraft — described in the report as being used in active combat for the first time. USCC+1

• The report also notes that China embarked on a disinformation campaign aiming to affect sales of French Rafale aircraft — including use of AI-generated imagery and fake social-media accounts — promoting its own J-35 fifth-generation fighter in the process. USCC+1

Aircraft Losses: What the Report States

On the subject of aircraft losses, the USCC report includes the following key wording:

• The report states that Pakistan claimed it downed aircraft flown by India, “including French-made Rafale fighter jets used by India’s military.” Business Recorder+2USCC+2

• It then qualifies: “despite the fact that only three jets flown by India’s military were reportedly downed and all may not have been Rafales.” USCC+1
  From this we can draw:

• The USCC acknowledges at least three Indian jets were reportedly lost, though it emphasizes that “all may not have been Rafales”. USCC

• On Pakistan’s losses, the report does not provide a specific confirmed number of Pakistani aircraft lost. Instead, it highlights Pakistan’s claim of having downed Indian jets and states that these claims were used as part of China’s promotional effort. Business Recorder+1

Summarized Key Findings from the Report

• Pakistan achieved a notable military success against India during the May 7-10, 2025 clash. USCC+1

• China played a significant role: supplying weapons to Pakistan, providing intelligence support (per Indian claims) and using the conflict as a live test and marketing opportunity for its military systems. USCC

• The report recognizes that Pakistani claims included the downing of Indian Rafale jets — though the report also cautions that only three jets were reportedly downed, and not all were necessarily Rafales. USCC+1

• On Pakistan’s own losses, the report does not provide a definitive figure; it remains silent or non-specific on confirmed Pakistani aircraft losses.

• The report signals that in the aftermath of the clash, China actively leveraged the event for arms-export diplomacy and disinformation campaigns. Deccan Herald+1

Implications According to the Report

From the USCC’s perspective:

• The engagement illustrated how regional conflicts can become arenas for third-party weapons testing and marketing, especially by states like China. USCC

• Pakistan's use of Chinese systems and its apparent operational success may embolden its defence posture and shift regional perceptions of its military capability.

• China’s weapon-system export strategy gained a boost: by demonstrating real-world usage and promoting its hardware through the clash, Beijing reinforced its role as a major defence supplier to Pakistan.

• For India, the fact that Pakistani claims and Chinese systems were able to feature prominently in the report suggests a possible erosion of India’s deterrence edge, at least in messaging.

• The report underscores that future engagements in the region will not only involve kinetic aircraft, missiles and air-bases, but also strategic information operations, weapons marketing, and proxy-support dynamics.

Conclusion

The USCC’s analysis of the May 7-10 clash presents a narrative less often voiced in South Asia: that Pakistan achieved a discernible military success and that China played a pivotal role behind the scenes — both in supplying advanced weapon systems and leveraging the episode for its wider strategic and defence-industrial interests. According to the report, while Indian air losses were reported to be three jets (though not all confirmed as Rafales), clear data on Pakistani losses remains unspecified. For analysts and policymakers, the takeaway is that regional military engagements are increasingly multipolar: not just India vs Pakistan, but also China’s influence and the global arms market.