Pakistan-Afghanistan Peace Talks Collapse in Istanbul: Ceasefire Holds, But Tensions Simmer on the Border

A Fragile Ceasefire on Shaky Ground

Hopes for a lasting peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan were dashed this week as high-stakes negotiations in Istanbul, mediated by Turkey and Qatar, ended without any breakthrough. The collapse of the talks marks yet another setback in the decades-long attempt to stabilize relations between the two uneasy neighbors—relations that have been fraught with mistrust, cross-border violence, and accusations of interference.

According to Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, the discussions “failed to bring about any workable solution,” accusing the Afghan delegation of avoiding responsibility for the recent wave of attacks claimed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

While the ceasefire brokered in Doha on October 19 technically remains in place, new border clashes have already resulted in casualties — with five Pakistani soldiers and twenty-five fighters reportedly killed over the weekend. The latest developments highlight how fragile peace remains between the two sides and how deep-rooted the mistrust truly is.

Back ground: From Doha Ceasefire to Istanbul Deadlock

The Istanbul talks were meant to build upon the temporary truce reached earlier in Doha, which was mediated by Qatar and Turkey following the most violent border exchanges since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in 2021. The ceasefire was initially seen as a positive step, giving hope that both nations could de-escalate tensions that had erupted earlier this month after Pakistani air strikes inside Afghanistan.

Those strikes, according to Islamabad, targeted key TTP hideouts and leadership figures, including the group’s chief who was allegedly operating from Afghan territory. In retaliation, Taliban fighters launched attacks on Pakistani border posts along the 2,600-kilometre frontier, particularly in Kurram, North Waziristan, and Spin Boldak.

As the violence spiraled, regional mediators stepped in to bring both sides to the table in Istanbul. But after several days of tense exchanges, sources from both delegations confirmed that the talks ended without resolution — and without a clear plan for the future.

Pakistan’s Position: “Afghanistan Must Take Responsibility”

From the Pakistani perspective, the crux of the conflict lies in what Islamabad views as the Taliban’s unwillingness — or inability — to curb the TTP’s cross-border attacks. Pakistan maintains that hundreds of TTP fighters are based in Afghan provinces bordering Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where they continue to plan and execute deadly operations inside Pakistan.

“The Afghan side kept deviating from the core issue,” said Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, in an official statement following the failed talks. “Instead of accepting any responsibility, the Afghan Taliban resorted to blame game, deflection, and ruses.”

A senior Pakistani security source, speaking anonymously to Reuters, echoed this sentiment:

“The Taliban delegation refused to commit to taking action against the TTP, saying it was beyond their control. This makes it impossible for Pakistan to ensure border stability.”

Pakistan’s military officials argue that they have shown restraint but cannot continue to tolerate cross-border terrorism.

The army claims that the TTP has killed hundreds of Pakistani soldiers and civilians since the Taliban’s return to power, exploiting the security vacuum along the porous border.

Afghanistan’s Perspective: “Pakistan’s War Is Not Ours”

On the Afghan side, officials from the Islamic Emirate reject Pakistan’s accusations and instead blame Islamabad for violating Afghan sovereignty through repeated airstrikes. A senior Afghan source familiar with the talks told TOLOnews that the Pakistani delegation came “without coordination or a clear plan” and seemed “more focused on justifying military actions than finding a diplomatic solution.”

The Afghan side reportedly maintained that the TTP is a Pakistani internal problem, not an Afghan one.

They emphasized that Afghanistan remains committed to ensuring that its soil is not used against any nation — a line the Taliban government has repeated since taking power.

“The issue of TTP is not an Afghan matter but an internal challenge for Pakistan,” the Afghan source said. “We do not allow anyone to use our territory against another country, but Afghanistan will not accept cross-border attacks that violate its sovereignty.”

Furthermore, Afghan delegates allegedly expressed frustration that Pakistan admitted to having an agreement with a foreign country — widely believed to be the United States — allowing drone strikes within Afghan territory. This revelation reportedly deepened mistrust and angered Kabul’s representatives, who called it a “clear breach of Afghan independence.”

Turkey and Qatar’s Mediation: Limited Success, Growing Frustration

Turkey and Qatar, both seen as trusted mediators by Islamabad and Kabul, hosted the negotiations in Istanbul with cautious optimism. Their primary goal was to formalize the ceasefire agreed upon in Doha and to create a joint monitoring mechanism to prevent future clashes.

However, the Istanbul round failed to achieve even a minimal joint statement — a sign of how strained the dialogue has become.

Diplomatic observers note that Qatar’s and Turkey’s leverage is limited, especially since both nations rely heavily on cooperation with the Taliban government for regional influence, while Pakistan’s military establishment views any mediation attempts as secondary to its own national security priorities.

Weekend Clashes: A Grim Reminder of What’s at Stake

Even as talks were ongoing, reports emerged of fresh fighting near the Kurram and North Waziristan districts, resulting in at least five Pakistani soldiers and twenty-five militants killed.

Pakistan’s army claimed that the attacks were launched from Afghan territory, underscoring its long-standing accusation that Kabul is providing safe haven to anti-Pakistan militants.

In contrast, Afghan officials alleged that Pakistan’s forces initiated the clashes, accusing Islamabad of conducting unprovoked shelling across the border in retaliation for the failure of the talks.

The renewed violence underscores just how fragile the ceasefire truly is, and how quickly a diplomatic stalemate could return the two countries to open conflict.

The Regional Stakes: A Widening Security Crisis

The breakdown of the Istanbul talks has far-reaching implications beyond the immediate border tensions.

Both nations are grappling with economic crises, internal political divisions, and growing pressure from global powers to stabilize their regions.

For Pakistan, instability along the Afghan frontier threatens its counterterrorism operations and economic corridor projects, particularly those linked to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (CPEC).

For Afghanistan, continued hostility from Pakistan risks isolating it further from regional trade and aid networks that are essential for its post-war recovery.

Regional analysts warn that if diplomacy fails completely, the region could see a resurgence of proxy conflicts, cross-border insurgencies, and further deterioration of already strained relations.

Statements from Both Capitals: Diplomacy on Life Support

As of Wednesday, Islamabad has maintained that its “door remains open” for dialogue but insists that any future talks must include verifiable commitments from Kabul to rein in militant groups.

Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Pakistan’s Defense Minister, cautioned that while the ceasefire still holds, failure to reach a meaningful deal would leave “open war” as a last resort.

Meanwhile, in Kabul, officials from the Islamic Emirate have refrained from issuing an official comment on the failure of the Istanbul talks. However, Afghan state media suggested that Pakistan’s demands were excessive, framing the negotiations as one-sided and disrespectful to Afghan sovereignty.

Conclusion: A Peace That Slips Further Away

The Istanbul peace talks were supposed to mark a turning point in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations.

Instead, they have deepened the perception that both nations are locked in an endless cycle of mistrust — one where neither side is willing to make meaningful concessions.

While regional mediators in Turkey and Qatar continue to urge restraint and renewed dialogue, the events of the past week show that the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan remains not just a line on a map, but a symbol of deep and dangerous divisions.

Until both governments can find a common framework to address the root causes of militancy, sovereignty, and mutual suspicion, peace between Islamabad and Kabul will remain an elusive dream — and the specter of renewed conflict will continue to haunt the region.