The FATF president will give a press briefing on the outcomes of the FATF plenary at 9:30pm (16:30 GMT).
Background discussions with key officials and foreign diplomats suggest that the jury is divided — with the authorities claiming sufficient progress to be confident of a positive outcome but some diplomats suggesting that even in the best-case scenario Pakistan would remain in the increased monitoring list (grey list) until June.
Ahead of the plenary which began on Monday, the FATF had updated the overall performance of all countries.
Based on this update, Pakistan has been shown improving compliance on two out of 40 recommendations of the FATF on the effectiveness of anti-money laundering and combating financing terror (AML/CFT) systems.
It finds Pakistan’s progress non-compliant on four counts, partially compliant on 25 counts and largely compliant on nine recommendations. Pakistan’s evaluation at the plenary will be based on the 27-point action plan and not on these 40 recommendations.
Diplomats said they had not seen this time the kind of aggressive diplomatic effort Islamabad had been making in the past, particularly before the October 2020 plenary review.
They said the plenary could discuss all options, including blacklisting Pakistan, keeping it in the grey list, or removing it from the grey list.
There are, however, no chances that Pakistan could be put in the blacklist because it has at least three members of the FATF — China, Turkey and Malaysia — who can sustain all pressures against any downgrade.