From the Gulf to Central Asia: Trump’s Abraham Accords Expansion and the Kazakhstan Moment

Introduction: A Diplomatic Framework in Motion

When former U.S. President Donald Trump inaugurated the Abraham Accords in 2020, the world observed a landmark shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy: the normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab-Muslim states. This framework was widely hailed as a breakthrough in the Arab-Israeli paradigm. Wikipedia+1

Fast forward to November 2025: At the White House, Trump announced that Kazakhstan — a Central Asian, majority-Muslim country — is poised to join the Abraham Accords, marking a geographic and strategic expansion of the initiative. Reuters+2Axios+2

In this blog, we examine what this expansion means, the additional countries involved (openly and behind the scenes), and the broader geopolitical context — from Gulf ties to Central Asian realignments.

What Are the Abraham Accords? A Brief Overview

The Abraham Accords began as a set of diplomatic agreements signed in 2020 under the Trump administration. The initial signatories established formal relations between Israel and several Arab states, breaking longstanding taboos. Encyclopedia Britannica+1

Key points:

• They marked an important shift from the older Arab Peace Initiative model (which conditioned normalization on a Palestinian state) toward bilateral normalization without pre-conditions. The Security Distillery

• Signatories sought mutual benefits: security cooperation, trade, technology transfer, and tourism links. Al Jazeera+1

• The Accords were intentionally broad: covering diplomacy, economy, culture, and even defense.

List of Known Signatory and Supportive Countries

Here’s a breakdown of countries that have either openly signed or have been reported to support/cooperate quietly with the Abraham Accords framework:

Openly signed / formal participants:

1. United Arab Emirates (UAE) – first major Gulf normalization with Israel. Wikipedia

2. Bahrain – joined shortly after the UAE in 2020. Wikipedia+1

3. Morocco – signed in late 2020. House of Commons Library+1

4. Sudan – committed in 2020 though full normalization and implementation have been delayed. Encyclopedia Britannica+1

Reported or pending accessions / supportive states:

• Kazakhstan – announced November 2025 as joining the Accords. Reuters+1

• Saudi Arabia – repeatedly referenced as potential member though not confirmed yet. Reuters+1

• Syria – noted in several reports as being considered for inclusion. Encyclopedia Britannica+1

• Additional nations in discussions or unofficial dialogues may include others in the Muslim-majority world or Central Asia.

Secret or informal cooperation:

While not always publicly declared, some states engage in quiet normalization or cooperation with Israel under the Accords’ umbrella. Academic research suggests some Gulf states maintained back-channel ties with Israel prior to 2020. Carnegie Endowment

Hence the term “openly and secretly” fits: some are signed members; others cooperate behind the scenes to benefit from the Accords’ infrastructure.

What the Kazakhstan Move Means

Kazakhstan’s accession is noteworthy for several reasons:

• It is not a Middle Eastern Arab state; it indicates the Accords may be shifting into Central Asia and beyond.

• Kazakhstan already maintained full diplomatic relations with Israel since 1992, so its accession is symbolic but still important in legitimizing the framework globally. Al Jazeera+1

• The move signals that the U.S. and Israel are aiming to broaden the coalition of Muslim-majority states normalizing with Israel, thereby increasing diplomatic leverage.

• For Kazakhstan, it offers economic, technology and defense opportunities while presenting itself as a bridge between East and West. Some analysts call this a “costless formal step” but meaningful in signaling alignment. Atlantic Council

In Trump’s words:

“Kazakhstan is the first Country of my Second Term to join the Abraham Accords, the first of many.” Axios+1

Challenges, Criticisms and the Gaza War Shadow

Despite the optimism, there are serious caveats:

• The Accords have not resolved the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which remains unresolved and is a fundamental grievance in many Muslim majority societies. Arab Center Washington DC+1

• Public opinion in many Arab or Muslim countries remains hostile to normalization without progress on Palestinian issues. Wikipedia

• The war in Gaza and Israeli military actions have placed pressure on signatories — some Gulf states now face reputational risk. TIME+1

• Inclusion of non-Arab Muslim states changes the dynamics — new members may have different priorities, reducing cohesion of the original bloc.

What’s Next? The Road Ahead for the Abraham Accords

With Kazakhstan joining and Saudi Arabia/Syria possibly following, the question is what form future expansion will take. Will new members:

• Sign full normalization agreements with Israel including embassies and trade?

• Remain symbolic declarations of alignment only?

• Be able to bridge their domestic public opinion (which often opposes normalization) with diplomatic realities?

Additionally, as the Accords expand, we may see new frames of cooperation: critical minerals, food security, technology exchange, and broader Muslim-majority cooperation rather than purely Arab-Israeli.

Trump’s administration appears keen to host signing ceremonies, expand the narrative of the Accords, and use them as a pillar of his foreign-policy legacy. Reuters quoted him saying more countries are “trying to join this club of STRENGTH.” Reuters

Conclusion: A Diplomatic Transformation in Progress

The Abraham Accords began as a Middle-East specific initiative but are now evolving into something larger — a global normalization framework. Kazakhstan’s accession is the first tangible sign of this shift. The list of countries is growing, and the ideological boundaries are expanding.

However, significant questions remain: Can the Accords deliver on underlying issues like Palestinian statehood? Will normalization be sustainable amid regional turbulence and public backlash? How will new entrants integrate into the architecture?

What is clear is this: normalization between Israel and Muslim-majority countries is no longer marginal. It is entering a new phase — more ambitious, more expansive, and playing out in unexpected regions such as Central Asia.

For the Middle East, Central Asia, and beyond, the Abraham Accords represent a new diplomatic template — one where economic, tech, energy, defense and ideology intersect. The next few years will test whether this template evolves into a durable platform for peace, or remains a symbolic network of opportunistic diplomacy.

Sources & References

• Britannica: “Which countries signed the Abraham Accords?” Encyclopedia Britannica+2Wikipedia+2

• Reuters: “Trump says Kazakhstan to join Abraham Accords” Nov 7 2025 Reuters

• Al Jazeera: “Kazakhstan, which already recognises Israel, to join Abraham Accords” Al Jazeera

• Atlantic Council: “Experts react: Kazakhstan will join the Abraham Accords – here’s what that means” Atlantic Council

• Security Distillery: “The Abraham Accords, Past, Present and Future” The Security Distillery